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Estimates
Kinds of Estimates Terms modified by Estimates Selected AbstractsUSING RANDOM JUDGE ASSIGNMENTS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECTS OF INCARCERATION AND PROBATION ON RECIDIVISM AMONG DRUG OFFENDERS,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2010DONALD P. GREEN Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior. [source] INDIRECT GENETIC EFFECTS INFLUENCE ANTIPREDATOR BEHAVIOR IN GUPPIES: ESTIMATES OF THE COEFFICIENT OF INTERACTION PSI AND THE INHERITANCE OF RECIPROCITYEVOLUTION, Issue 7 2009Bronwyn H. Bleakley How and why cooperation evolves, particularly among nonrelatives, remains a major paradox for evolutionary biologists and behavioral ecologists. Although much attention has focused on fitness consequences associated with cooperating, relatively little is known about the second component of evolutionary change, the inheritance of cooperation or reciprocity. The genetics of behaviors that can only be expressed in the context of interactions are particularly difficult to describe because the relevant genes reside in multiple social partners. Indirect genetic effects (IGEs) describe the influence of genes carried in social partners on the phenotype of a focal individual and thus provide a novel approach to quantifying the genetics underlying interactions such as reciprocal cooperation. We used inbred lines of guppies and a novel application of IGE theory to describe the dual genetic control of predator inspection and social behavior, both classic models of reciprocity. We identified effects of focal strain, social group strain, and interactions between focal and group strains on variation in focal behavior. We measured ,, the coefficient of the interaction, which describes the degree to which an individual's phenotype is influenced by the phenotype of its social partners. The genetic identity of social partners substantially influences inspection behavior, measures of threat assessment, and schooling and does so in positively reinforcing manner. We therefore demonstrate strong IGEs for antipredator behavior that represent the genetic variation necessary for the evolution of reciprocity. [source] MAINTENANCE OF ANDRODIOECY IN THE FRESHWATER SHRIMP, EULIMNADIA TEXANA: ESTIMATES OF INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN TWO POPULATIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2000Stephen C. Weeks Abstract., Androdioecy is an uncommon form of reproduction in which males coexist with hermaphrodites. Androdioecy is thought to be difficult to evolve in species that regularly inbreed. The freshwater shrimp Eulimnadia texana has recently been described as both androdioecious and highly selfing and is thus anomalous. Inbreeding depression is one factor that may maintain males in these populations. Here we examine the extent of "late" inbreeding depression (after sexual maturity) in these clam shrimp using two tests: (1) comparing the fitness of shrimp varying in their levels of individual heterozygosity from two natural populations that differ in overall genetic diversity; and (2) specifically outcrossing and selfing shrimp from these same populations and comparing fitness of the resulting offspring. The effects of inbreeding differed within each population. In the more genetically diverse population, fecundity, size, and mortality were significantly reduced in inbred shrimp. In the less genetically diverse population, none of the fitness measures was significantly lowered in selfed shrimp. Combining estimates of early inbreeding depression from a previous study with current estimates of late inbreeding depression suggests that inbreeding depression is substantial (,= 0.68) in the more diverse population and somewhat lower (,= 0.50) in the less diverse population. However, given that males have higher mortality rates than hermaphrodites, neither estimate of inbreeding depression is large enough to account for the maintenance of males in either population by inbreeding depression alone. Thus, the stability of androdioecy in this system is likely only if hermaphrodites are unable to self-fertilize many of their own eggs when not mated to a male or if male mating success is generally high (or at least high when males are rare). Patterns of fitness responses in the two populations were consistent with the hypothesis that inbreeding depression is caused by partially recessive deleterious alleles, although a formal test of this hypothesis still needs to be conducted. [source] A RAPID METHOD OF QUANTIFYING THE RESOLUTION LIMITS OF HEAT-FLOW ESTIMATES IN BASIN MODELSJOURNAL OF PETROLEUM GEOLOGY, Issue 2 2008A. Beha Deterministic forward models are commonly used to quantify the processes accompanying basin evolution. Here, we describe a workflow for the rapid calibration of palaeo heat-flow behaviour. The method determines the heat-flow history which best matches the observed data, such as vitrinite reflectance, which is used to indicate the thermal maturity of a sedimentary rock. A limiting factor in determining the heat-flow history is the ability of the algorithm used in the software for the maturity calculation to resolve information inherent in the measured data. Thermal maturation is controlled by the temperature gradient in the basin over time and is therefore greatly affected by maximum burial depth. Calibration, i.e. finding the thermal history model which best fits the observed data (e.g. vitrinite reflectance), can be a time-consuming exercise. To shorten this process, a simple pseudo-inverse model is used to convert the complex thermal behaviour obtained from a basin simulator into more simple behaviour, using a relatively simple equation. By comparing the calculated "simple" maturation trend with the observed data points using the suggested workflow, it becomes relatively straightforward to evaluate the range within which a best-fit model will be found. Reverse mapping from the simple model to the complex behaviour results in precise values for the heat-flow which can then be applied to the basin model. The goodness-of-fit between the modelled and observed data can be represented by the Mean Squared Residual (MSR) during the calibration process. This parameter shows the mean squared difference between all measured data and the respective predicted maturities. A minimum MSR value indicates the "best fit". Case studies are presented of two wells in the Horn Graben, Danish North Sea. In both wells calibrating the basin model using a constant heat-flow over time is not justified, and a more complex thermal history must be considered. The pseudo-inverse method was therefore applied iteratively to investigate more complex heat-flow histories. Neither in the observed maturity data nor in the recorded stratigraphy was there evidence for erosion which would have influenced the present-day thermal maturity pattern, and heat-flow and time were therefore the only variables investigated. The aim was to determine the simplest "best-fit" heat-flow history which could be resolved at the maximum resolution given by the measured maturity data. The conclusion was that basin models in which the predicted maturity of sedimentary rocks is calibrated solely against observed vitrinite reflectance data cannot provide information on the timing of anomalies in the heat-flow history. The pseudo inverse method, however, allowed the simplest heat-flow history that best fits the observed data to be found. [source] RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 5 2002A. Allen Bradley ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain-gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive. [source] CAPTURE-RECAPTURE ESTIMATES OF HECTOR'S DOLPHIN ABUNDANCE AT BANKS PENINSULA, NEW ZEALANDMARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2005Andrew M. Gormley Abstract Capture-recapture techniques have been extensively used to estimate survival rates of Hector's dolphins at Banks Peninsula, but not abundance. We analyzed nine seasons of photo-identification data using a model-fitting approach in the computer program MARK, and then used MARK's estimates of capture probabilities to calculate the abundance of distinctive individuals. We extrapolated these estimates to include unmarked individuals using five seasons of data on the proportion of identifiable individuals in this population, obtained from "random photography." This capture-recapture approach suggests a 1996 population of about 1,100 (CV = 0.21). This is very similar to the 1997 line-transect estimate of about 900 (CV = 0.28), especially considering that the two techniques do not necessarily measure the same thing. An important advantage of the capture-recapture approach stems from the inherent versatility of photo-ID data. If the sampling design is appropriate, an unbiased abundance estimate can be achieved as a spin-off from work directed at other questions. However, in our view, line-transect estimates are easier to interpret because the sampling design is explicit. [source] COMPARISON OF BETWEEN-TOOTH AGE ESTIMATES OF ATLANTIC WALRUS (ODOBENUS ROSMARUS ROSMARUS)MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2005Robert E. A. Stewart [source] METHODS FOR JOINT INFERENCE FROM MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES FOR IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF POPULATION SIZE AND SURVIVAL RATESMARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2004Daniel Goodman Abstract Critical conservation decisions often hinge on estimates of population size, population growth rate, and survival rates, but as a practical matter it is difficult to obtain enough data to provide precise estimates. Here we discuss Bayesian methods for simultaneously drawing on the information content from multiple sorts of data to get as much precision as possible for the estimates. The basic idea is that an underlying population model can connect the various sorts of observations, so this can be elaborated into a joint likelihood function for joint estimation of the respective parameters. The potential for improved estimates derives from the potentially greater effective sample size of the aggregate of data, even though some of the data types may only bear directly on a subset of the parameters. The achieved improvement depends on specifics of the interactions among parameters in the underlying model, and on the actual content of the data. Assuming the respective data sets are unbiased, notwithstanding the fact that they may be noisy, we may gauge the average improvement in the estimates of the parameters of interest from the reduction, if any, in the standard deviations of their posterior marginal distributions. Prospective designs may be evaluated from analysis of simulated data. Here this approach is illustrated with an assessment of the potential value in various ways of merging mark-resight and carcass-survey data for the Florida manatee, as could be made possible by various modifications in the data collection protocols in both programs. [source] ADJUSTED ESTIMATES OF UNITED STATES,CHINA BILATERAL TRADE BALANCES: AN UPDATEPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2006K. C. Fung In this paper, four adjustments are made to the export and import data of the two governments: (i) freight along side (f.a.s.)-free on board (f.o.b.) and cost, insurance and freight (c.i.f.)-f.o.b. conversions; (ii) re-exports through Hong Kong (and elsewhere); (iii) re-export markups; and (iv) trade in services. After adjustments, our best estimate for the 2005 bilateral trade balance is $US170.7 billion, in China's favour, which is much larger than the official Chinese balance of $US114.2 billion but also much smaller than the official US balance of $US201.6 billion. [source] TIME-VARYING ESTIMATES ON THE OPENNESS OF CAPITAL ACCOUNTS IN EAST ASIA AND MEXICOTHE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 2 2000Sun LIXING First page of article [source] COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY*THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2009GEORGE CHOULIARAKIS The paper derives and compares historical and real-time estimates of the UK natural unemployment rate and shows that real-time estimates are fraught with noise and should be treated with scepticism. A counterfactual exercise shows that, for most of the 1990s, the Bank of England tracked changes in the natural rate relatively successfully, albeit with some recognition lag which, at times, might have led to excessively cautious policy. A careful scrutiny of the minutes of the monetary policy committee meetings reveals that such ,cautiousness' should be taken as evidence of awareness of the real-time informational limitations that monetary policy is facing. [source] NEW ESTIMATES OF AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC BORROWING AND CAPITAL RAISED IN LONDON, 1849,1914AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW, Issue 2 2007Article first published online: 7 JUN 200, Bernard Attard Australia; capital market; debt; foreign exchange; statistics Current statistics of Australian public borrowing to 1914 suffer from several limits. On the basis of a comprehensive revision, an upward bias is shown in all the alternative time series of London borrowing, while statistics of local bond issues are derived for the first time. The new time series show the importance of the initial borrowing cycle during the 1850s and 1860s; the scale of debt repatriation from the mid-1890s; the interaction between domestic and overseas borrowing before the 1880s; and the potential significance of remittance as an ,invisible stabiliser' of the exchanges and alternative indirect source of capital imports. [source] Estimate of the Area Affected Ecologically by the Road System in the United StatesCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2000Richard T. T. Forman Two recent studies in The Netherlands and Massachusetts ( U.S.A.) evaluated several ecological effects of roads, including traffic noise effects, and provide quantitative evidence for a definable "road-effect zone." Based on the approximate width of this asymmetric convoluted zone, I estimate that about one-fifth of the U.S. land area is directly affected ecologically by the system of public roads. I identify a series of assumptions and variables suggesting that over time this preliminary estimate is more likely to rise than drop. Several transportation planning and policy recommendations, ranging from perforating the road barrier for wildlife crossings to closing certain roads, offer promise for reducing this enormous ecological effect. Resumen: En vista de un sistema carretero extensivo, un abundante y creciente tráfico vehicular y una literatura dispersa indicando que algunos efectos ecológicos de las carreteras se extienden más allá de 100 m, parece probable que los efectos ecológicos acumulativos del sistema carretero en los Estados Unidos es considerable. Dos estudios recientes en los Países Bajos y Massachusetts ( USA) evaluaron diversos efectos ecológicos de las carreteras, incluyendo efectos del ruido del tráfico y proporcionan evidencia cuantitativa para una definible "zona de efecto carretero". En base a la amplitud aproximada de esta zona conpleja y asimétrica, estimé que alrededor de una auinta parte del área terrestre de los Estados Unidos es directamente afectada ecológicamente por el sistema de carreteras públicas. Identifiqué series de conjeturas y variables que surgieren que a lo largo del tiempo esta estimación preliminar es mas probable que incremente a que disminuya. Diversos planes de transportación y recomendaciones políticas, que van desde perforar la barrera carretera para propiciar el cruce de vida silvestre hasta el cierre de ciertas carreteras ofrecen la promesa de reducir este efecto carretero. [source] Estimate of input energy for elasto-plastic SDOF systems during earthquakes based on discrete wavelet coefficientsEARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS, Issue 15 2005Jun Iyama Abstract The response of an elasto-plastic single degree of freedom (SDOF) system to ground motion is estimated based on wavelet coefficients calculated by discrete wavelet transform. Wavelet coefficients represent both the time and frequency characteristics of input ground motion, and thus can be considered to be directly related to the dynamic response of a non-linear system. This relationship between the energy input into an elastic SDOF system and wavelet coefficients is derived based on the assumption that wavelets deliver energy to the structure instantaneously and the quantity of energy is constant regardless of yielding. These assumptions are shown to be valid when the natural period of the system is in the predominant period range of the wavelet, the most common scenario for real structures, through dynamic response analysis of a single wavelet. The wavelet-based estimation of elastic and plastic energy transferred by earthquake ground motion is thus shown to be in good agreement with the dynamic response analysis when the natural period is in the predominant range of the input. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A Simple Engineering Estimate of the Fatigue Notch Factor of Arbitrary Stress ConcentratorsADVANCED ENGINEERING MATERIALS, Issue 4 2010Hans-Peter Gaenser In fatigue life estimates, the fatigue stress endured at the hot spot is usually higher than what is predicted by the elastic stress concentration factor. Recently, Neuber's and Novozhilov's approaches of introducing an effective stress by averaging the actual stress field over a characteristic microstructural length have experienced a reappraisal. The present contribution aims at complementing these recent proposals by a mathematically simple engineering assessment of arbitrarily shaped notches, resulting in a closed-form expression for the fatigue notch factor. The limits of validity of the solution are discussed. [source] A First Estimate of Ground Water Ages for the Deep Aquifer of the Kathmandu Basin, Nepal, Using the Radioisotope Chlorine-36GROUND WATER, Issue 3 2001Richard G. Cresswell The Kathmandu Basin in Nepal contains up to 550 m of Pliocene-Quaternary fluvio-lacustrine sediments which have formed a dual aquifer system. The unconfined sand and gravel aquifer is separated by a clay aquitard, up to 200 m thick, from the deeper, confined aquifer, comprised of Pliocene sand and gravel beds, intercalated with clay, peat, and lignite. The confined aquifer currently provides an important water supply to the central urban area but there are increasing concerns about its sus-tainability due to overexploitation. A limited number of determinations of the radioisotope 36Cl have been made on bore waters in the basin, allowing us to postulate on the age of ground water in the deeper, confined aquifer. Ground water evolution scenarios based on radioisotope decay, gradual dissolution of formational salts as the ground waters move downgradient, and flow velocity estimations produce comparable ground water ages for the deep waters, ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 years. From these ages, we deduce a mean ground water flow velocity of only 45 mm/year from recharge in the northeast to the main extraction region 15 km to the southwest. We thus estimate current recharge at about 5 to 15 mm/year, contributing 40,000 to 1.2 million m3/year to the ground water system. Current ground water extraction is estimated to be 20 times this amount. The low specific discharge confirms that the resource is being mined, and, based on current projections, reserves will be used up within 100 years. [source] Estimates of genetic parameters for conformation measures and scores in Finnhorse and Standardbred foalsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 5 2010E. Schroderus Summary The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for conformation measures and scores in the Finnhorse and the Standardbred foals presented in foal shows. Studied traits included height at withers and at croup, six subjectively evaluated conformation traits and overall grade. Data were from 10-year period (1995,2004) and consisted of 5821 Finnhorse foals (1,3 years old) with 7644 records and 2570 Standardbred foals (1,2 years old) with 2864 records. Variance components were estimated with REML , animal model using VCE4 program. The model included age class, year of judging, sex and region as fixed effects, and additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual as random effects. Estimates of heritability for measured traits were very high in both breeds (0.88,0.90). Estimates of heritability for conformation traits varied from 0.13 to 0.32 in the Finnhorse and from 0.06 to 0.47 in the Standardbred. In both breeds, estimates of heritability were lowest for hooves and movements at walk, and highest for type and body conformation among scored traits. Estimate of heritability for overall grade was in the Finnhorse 0.32 and in the Standardbred 0.34. Genetic correlations between overall grade and different conformation traits were 0.35,0.84 in the Finnhorse and 0.31,0.88 in the Standardbred. Thus, selection based on the overall grade would improve all studied characteristics. [source] Use of Forecasts of Earnings to Estimate and Compare Cost of Capital Across RegimesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2006Article first published online: 19 MAY 200, Peter Easton Abstract: I critically examine several of the methods used in the recent literature to estimate and compare the cost of capital across different accounting/regulatory regimes. I focus on the central importance of expectations of growth beyond the short period for which forecasts of future pay-offs (dividends and/or earnings) are available. I illustrate, using the stocks that comprised the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at December 31, 2004, as an example, the differences between the growth rates implied by the data, and growth rates that are often assumed in the literature. My analyses show that assumptions about growth beyond the (short) forecast horizon may seriously affect the estimates of the expected rate of return and may lead to spurious inferences. [source] A comparison of three noise reduction procedures applied to bird vocal signalsJOURNAL OF FIELD ORNITHOLOGY, Issue 3 2007Myron C. Baker ABSTRACT Recordings of avian vocal signals in natural habitats include ambient noise. Often this background noise corrupts across all frequencies and is of substantial amplitude. Reducing this ambient noise to prepare vocal signals for playback stimuli or to remove habitat-specific noise signatures prior to analyzing a signal's acoustic characteristics can be useful. We conducted experimental evaluations of three noise reduction procedures to determine their effectiveness. We embedded two bird vocalizations ("clean" signals) in four kinds of natural noise, resulting in eight noise-signal combinations. We then applied three noise reduction procedures (Noise Profile, Band Pass, and Noise Estimate) to each of the embedded signals and compared the recovered signals to the original (clean) signals. Noise Profile filtering was effective in reducing noise and returning fairly high-quality signals from even severe levels of masking noise. The other two noise reduction procedures did not perform as well. For the two most corrupting maskers, however, Noise Profile filtering also altered the signal properties by reducing signal amplitude at those frequencies containing high levels of noise. Apart from this loss of amplitude, the quantitative features of the filtered signals were similar to those of the original model sounds. We conclude that Noise Profile filtering produces good results for cases where noise is approximately constant over the signal duration and the signal intensity exceeds noise intensity over the frequencies of interest. SINOPSIS La grabación de sonidos de aves en hábitats naturales incluye ruidos ambientales. A menudo este ruido es de amplitud sustancial y afecta todas las frecuencias. Antes de analizar una señal vocal, podría ser útil reducir este ruido ambiental, bien para preparar vocalizaciones grabadas para provocar respuestas de aves como para remover ruidos asociados a hábitats. Llevamos a cabo una serie de experimentos con tres procedimientos de reducción de ruido para determinar su efectividad. Insertamos dos vocalizaciones de aves (señales "limpias") en cuatro tipos de ruidos naturales, obteniendo como resultado ocho combinaciones de señales con ruido. Posteriormente, aplicamos tres procedimientos de reducción de ruido ("Perfil de Ruido,""Paso de Banda" y "Estimaciones de Ruido") a cada una de las señales insertadas y comparamos las señales recuperadas con los sonidos originales (limpios). La filtración tipo "Perfil de Ruido" resultó efectiva para reducir el ruido y producir señales de razonablemente buena calidad, aún en situaciones de ruido severo. Los otros dos tratamientos no funcionaron tan bien. Para los dos tipos de ruido con mayores efectos, el "Perfil de Ruido" alteró las propiedades de la señal y redujo la amplitud de la misma, en aquellas frecuencias que contenían altos niveles de ruido. Además de la pérdida de amplitud, los elementos cuantitativos de las señales filtradas fueron similares a las de los modelos sonoros originales. Concluimos que el procedimiento de filtrado "Perfil de Ruido" produce buenos resultados para casos en donde el ruido es de duración aproximadamente constante a lo largo de la señal y cuando la intensidad de la señal excede la intensidad del ruido sobre las frecuencias de interés. [source] Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets,AGRIBUSINESS : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 4 2008Olga Isengildina-Massa This study investigates the impact of U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets over 1985 to 2002. If WASDE reports resolve uncertainty, implied volatility should drop immediately after release of the reports. Results show that WASDE reports lead to a statistically significant reduction of implied volatility that averages 0.7 percentage points for corn and 0.8 percentage points for soybeans. The magnitude of the reduction is largest for the group of WASDE reports containing both domestic and international situation and outlook information. This group of reports reduces implied volatility by an average of 1.1 percentage points in corn and by almost 1.5 percentage points in soybeans. Results also reveal that the market impact of WASDE reports is strongest in the most recent 1996 to 2002 subperiod. Overall, the results indicate that WASDE reports provide valuable information to corn and soybean market participants. [JEL classifications: Q100, Q110, Q130]. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] A Time-Domain Semi-parametric Estimate for Strongly Dependent Continuous-Time Stationary ProcessesJOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 6 2003Takeshi Kato Abstract., A covariance-based estimator of the memory parameter of strongly dependent continuous-time stationary processes is proposed. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established. All assumptions, the form of the estimator, and the proofs are made in time-domain only. [source] Self-Assembly of Rod-Like Copolymers into Monolayers: A Simple Theoretical Estimate of Molecular Recognition QualityMACROMOLECULAR THEORY AND SIMULATIONS, Issue 7-8 2008Anatoly V. Berezkin Abstract A discrete model of a monolayer, consisting of identical rod-like copolymer molecules, is suggested. The influence of the copolymer's composition and sequence on its self-assembly was studied. Thermodynamic quantities of monolayers were calculated. It is shown that the system undergoes an "order-disorder" transition upon temperature increase. The most regular monolayers are formed by copolymers with quasi-random sequences. Nevertheless, the monomer composition of such "good" sequences can vary over a wide range. It is shown that homopolymers, copolymers with a predominance of one-type monomer units and copolymers consisting of a small number of large blocks have a reduced ability to self-assembly. [source] An Estimate of the Range of Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment for AustraliaTHE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 236 2001J. N. Lye This paper estimates the range of equilibrium rates of unemployment for Australia. The estimation technique nests a unique equilibrium rate of unemployment as a special case. It is found for the period 1965,97 that a range of equilibria of at least 6.6 percentage points of unemployment exists in Australia. The lower limit of this range, which is the minimum rate of unemployment consistent with non-increasing inflation, was 2,3 per cent in the 1960s, jumped in the early 1970s and was about 5.6 per cent during the 1990s. [source] Estimate of the sensitivity of an ELISA used to detect Johne's disease in Victorian dairy cattle herdsAUSTRALIAN VETERINARY JOURNAL, Issue 9 2004TF JUBB Objective To estimate the sensitivity of the ELISA used in dairy cattle herds participating in the Victorian Bovine Johne's Disease Test and Control Program (TCP). Procedure The percentage of ELISA reactors in age and test cohorts was estimated from age-specific test data derived from TCP herds with long testing histories. Age-distribution data from production-tested herds enabled estimation of reactor rates in animals that were culled or died. Results ELISA sensitivities at the first test round in herds achieving five, six and seven annual herd tests were 16.1, 14.9 and 13.5% respectively. The ELISA sensitivity in 2, 3 and 4-year-old animals at the first test round in herds testing seven times was 1.2, 8.9 and 11.6% respectively but remained between 20 and 30% in older age-groups. Conclusion The sensitivity of the ELISA is considerably lower than previous estimates, probably because previous estimates were predominantly measured against faecal culture, which has subsequently been shown to have low sensitivity itself, and did not appreciate the long period that appears to precede detectable faecal excretion in most animals. [source] Sample Size Reassessment in Adaptive Clinical Trials Using a Bias Corrected EstimateBIOMETRICAL JOURNAL, Issue 7 2003Silke Coburger Abstract Point estimation in group sequential and adaptive trials is an important issue in analysing a clinical trial. Most literature in this area is only concerned with estimation after completion of a trial. Since adaptive designs allow reassessment of sample size during the trial, reliable point estimation of the true effect when continuing the trial is additionally needed. We present a bias adjusted estimator which allows a more exact sample size determination based on the conditional power principle than the naive sample mean does. [source] A Semiparametric Estimate of Treatment Effects with Censored DataBIOMETRICS, Issue 3 2001Ronghui Xu Summary. A semiparametric estimate of an average regression effect with right-censored failure time data has recently been proposed under the Cox-type model where the regression effect ,(t) is allowed to vary with time. In this article, we derive a simple algebraic relationship between this average regression effect and a measurement of group differences in K -sample transformation models when the random error belongs to the Gp family of Harrington and Fleming (1982, Biometrika69, 553,566), the latter being equivalent to the conditional regression effect in a gamma frailty model. The models considered here are suitable for the attenuating hazard ratios that often arise in practice. The results reveal an interesting connection among the above three classes of models as alternatives to the proportional hazards assumption and add to our understanding of the behavior of the partial likelihood estimate under nonproportional hazards. The algebraic relationship provides a simple estimator under the transformation model. We develop a variance estimator based on the empirical influence function that is much easier to compute than the previously suggested resampling methods. When there is truncation in the right tail of the failure times, we propose a method of bias correction to improve the coverage properties of the confidence intervals. The estimate, its estimated variance, and the bias correction term can all be calculated with minor modifications to standard software for proportional hazards regression. [source] Direct Estimate of the Strength of Conjugation and Hyperconjugation by the Energy Decomposition Analysis MethodCHEMISTRY - A EUROPEAN JOURNAL, Issue 13 2006Israel Fernández Dr. Abstract The intrinsic strength of , interactions in conjugated and hyperconjugated molecules has been calculated using density functional theory by energy decomposition analysis (EDA) of the interaction energy between the conjugating fragments. The results of the EDA of the trans -polyenes H2CCH(HCCH)nCHCH2 (n=1,3) show that the strength of , conjugation for each CC moiety is higher than in trans -1,3-butadiene. The absolute values for the conjugation between SiSi , bonds are around two-thirds of the conjugation between CC bonds but the relative contributions of ,E, to ,Eorb in the all-silicon systems are higher than in the carbon compounds. The , conjugation between CC and CO or CNH bonds in H2CCHC(H)O and H2CCHC(H)NH is comparable to the strength of the conjugation between CC bonds. The , conjugation in H2CCHC(R)O decreases when R=Me, OH, and NH2 while it increases when R=halogen. The hyperconjugation in ethane is around a quarter as strong as the , conjugation in ethyne. Very strong hyperconjugation is found in the central CC bonds in cubylcubane and tetrahedranyltetrahedrane. The hyperconjugation in substituted ethanes X3CCY3 (X,Y=Me, SiH3, F, Cl) is stronger than in the parent compound particularly when X,Y=SiH3 and Cl. The hyperconjugation in donor,acceptor-substituted ethanes may be very strong; the largest ,E, value was calculated for (SiH3)3CCCl3 in which the hyperconjugation is stronger than the conjugation in ethene. The breakdown of the hyperconjugation in X3CCY3 shows that donation of the donor-substituted moiety to the acceptor group is as expected the most important contribution but the reverse interaction is not negligible. The relative strengths of the , interactions between two CC double bonds, one CC double bond and CH3 or CMe3 substituents, and between two CH3 or CMe3 groups, which are separated by one CC single bond, are in a ratio of 4:2:1. Very strong hyperconjugation is found in HCCC(SiH3)3 and HCCCCl3. The extra stabilization of alkenes and alkynes with central multiple bonds over their terminal isomers coming from hyperconjugation is bigger than the total energy difference between the isomeric species. The hyperconjugation in MeC(R)O is half as strong as the conjugation in H2CCHC(R)O and shows the same trend for different substituents R. Bond energies and lengths should not be used as indicators of the strength of hyperconjugation because the effect of , interactions and electrostatic forces may compensate for the hyperconjugative effect. [source] Favorable Long-Term Survival in Patients Undergoing Stent PCI of Unprotected Left Main Coronary Artery Compared to Predicted Short-Term Prognosis of CABG Estimated by EuroSCORE: Clinical Determinants of Long-Term OutcomeJOURNAL OF INTERVENTIONAL CARDIOLOGY, Issue 4 2009RALF LEHMANN M.D. Aims/Methods: The long-term outcome of patients (pts) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of unprotected left main coronary artery (LMCA) is unclear so far. We prospectively investigated the outcome of 102 consecutive patients who underwent stent PCI of unprotected LMCA. Patients were divided according to clinical indication for PCI: stable coronary artery disease (CAD) (N = 60), NSTEMI (N = 18), STEMI (N = 24). Expected in-hospital mortality of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was calculated using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and compared to the observed survival rate during long-term follow-up (mean 1.8 ± 1.2 years). Results: The observed 30-day mortality was 1.7% (1/60 pts) in patients with stable CAD, 11% (2/18 pts) in NSTEMI patients, and 13% (3/24 pts) in STEMI patients. The observed mortality was lower than the predicted mortality of CABG as calculated by the logistic EuroSCORE. Using receiver-operator characteristics curves (ROC), EuroSCORE demonstrated a high predictive value for both 30-day mortality as well as 1-year mortality (AUC > 0.8; P < 0.01). Prognostically relevant patient related factors (P < 0.01) included severely reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 3.24), ACS (HR 3.18), STEMI (HR: 3.01), Killip class IV (HR 7.69), occurrence of neoplastic disease (HR 3.97), and elevated CRP (HR 3.86). Conclusions: LMCA-PCI was associated with lower long-term mortality rates compared to the estimated mortality of CABG. This prospective observational study suggests that DES-PCI of unprotected LMCA in "all-comers" can be carried out with reasonable risk. [source] Youden Index and Optimal Cut-Point Estimated from Observations Affected by a Lower Limit of DetectionBIOMETRICAL JOURNAL, Issue 3 2008Marcus D. Ruopp Abstract The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to evaluate a biomarker's ability for classifying disease status. The Youden Index (J), the maximum potential effectiveness of a biomarker, is a common summary measure of the ROC curve. In biomarker development, levels may be unquantifiable below a limit of detection (LOD) and missing from the overall dataset. Disregarding these observations may negatively bias the ROC curve and thus J. Several correction methods have been suggested for mean estimation and testing; however, little has been written about the ROC curve or its summary measures. We adapt non-parametric (empirical) and semi-parametric (ROC-GLM [generalized linear model]) methods and propose parametric methods (maximum likelihood (ML)) to estimate J and the optimal cut-point (c *) for a biomarker affected by a LOD. We develop unbiased estimators of J and c * via ML for normally and gamma distributed biomarkers. Alpha level confidence intervals are proposed using delta and bootstrap methods for the ML, semi-parametric, and non-parametric approaches respectively. Simulation studies are conducted over a range of distributional scenarios and sample sizes evaluating estimators' bias, root-mean square error, and coverage probability; the average bias was less than one percent for ML and GLM methods across scenarios and decreases with increased sample size. An example using polychlorinated biphenyl levels to classify women with and without endometriosis illustrates the potential benefits of these methods. We address the limitations and usefulness of each method in order to give researchers guidance in constructing appropriate estimates of biomarkers' true discriminating capabilities. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] One Hundred Fifty Years of Change in Forest Bird Breeding Habitat: Estimates of Species DistributionsCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2005LISA A. SCHULTE aptitud del hábitat; ecología aviar; ecología de paisaje; planificación de conservación Abstract:,Evaluating bird population trends requires baseline data. In North America the earliest population data available are those from the late 1960s. Forest conditions in the northern Great Lake states (U.S.A.), however, have undergone succession since the region was originally cut over around the turn of the twentieth century, and it is expected that bird populations have undergone concomitant change. We propose pre-Euro-American settlement as an alternative baseline for assessing changes in bird populations. We evaluated the amount, quality, and distribution of breeding bird habitat during the mid-1800s and early 1990s for three forest birds: the Pine Warbler (Dendroica pinus), Blackburnian Warbler (D. fusca), and Black-throated Green Warbler (D. virens). We constructed models of bird and habitat relationships based on literature review and regional data sets of bird abundance and applied these models to widely available vegetation data. Original public-land survey records represented historical habitat conditions, and a combination of forest inventory and national land-cover data represented current conditions. We assessed model robustness by comparing current habitat distribution to actual breeding bird locations from the Wisconsin Breeding Bird Atlas. The model showed little change in the overall amount of Pine Warbler habitat, whereas both the Blackburnian Warber and the Black-throated Green Warbler have experienced substantial habitat losses. For the species we examined, habitat quality has degraded since presettlement and the spatial distribution of habitat shifted among ecoregions, with range expansion accompanying forest incursion into previously open habitats or the replacement of native forests with pine plantations. Sources of habitat loss and degradation include loss of conifers and loss of large trees. Using widely available data sources in a habitat suitability model framework, our method provides a long-term analysis of change in bird habitat and a presettlement baseline for assessing current conservation priority. Resumen:,La evaluación de tendencias de las poblaciones de aves requiere de datos de referencia. En Norte América, los primeros datos disponibles de poblaciones son del final de la década de 1960. Sin embargo, las condiciones de los bosques en los estados de los Grandes Lagos (E.U.A.) han experimentado sucesión desde que la región fue talada en los inicios del siglo veinte, y se espera que las poblaciones de aves hayan experimentado cambios concomitantes. Proponemos que se considere al período previo a la colonización euro americana como referencia alternativa para evaluar los cambios en las poblaciones de aves. Evaluamos la cantidad, calidad y distribución del hábitat para reproducción de tres especies de aves de bosque (Dendroica pinus, D. fusca y D. virens) a mediados del siglo XIX e inicios del XX. Construimos modelos de las relaciones entre las aves y el hábitat con base en la literatura y conjuntos de datos de abundancia de aves y los aplicamos a los datos de vegetación ampliamente disponibles. Los registros topográficos de tierras públicas originales representaron las condiciones históricas del hábitat, y una combinación de datos del inventario forestal y de cobertura de suelo representaron las condiciones actuales. Evaluamos la robustez del modelo mediante la comparación de la distribución de hábitat actual con sitios de reproducción de aves registrados en el Wisconsin Breeding Bird Atlas. El modelo mostró poco cambio en la cantidad total de hábitat de Dendroica pinus, mientras que tanto D. fusca como D. virens han experimentado pérdidas sustanciales de hábitat. Para las especies examinadas, la calidad del hábitat se ha degradado desde antes de la colonización y la distribución espacial del hábitat cambió entre ecoregiones, con la expansión del rango acompañando la incursión de bosques en hábitats anteriormente abiertos o el reemplazo de bosques nativos con plantaciones de pinos. Las fuentes de pérdida y degradación de hábitats incluyen la pérdida de coníferas y de árboles grandes. Mediante la utilización de fuentes de datos ampliamente disponibles en un modelo de aptitud de hábitat, nuestro método proporciona un análisis a largo plazo de los cambios en el hábitat de aves y una referencia precolonización para evaluar prioridades de conservación actuales. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||